A wandering river. The Dreisam shifts its bed across the plain, sweeps away what stands in its way, and dries into fords in a drought.
Plague and fire. The Black Death can empty two thirds of the town and leave its old heart shunned for generations.
Raids on the churches. Every town needs a temple or church to pay taxes, and raiders come for them.
Kings and generals. Lose five times and the king builds you a new town. Win too often and a famous general takes command.
Wealth draws enemies. A rich treasury brings coalitions of armies from every side, and once in a millennium a great invasion.
Time and erosion. Ditches silt up, ruins crumble into mounds, and a long-lived town rises on its own hill.